This year I expect to see more and more data confirming my belief that
our industry behaves according to a corollary of Moore's Law. This new
Law posits that the demand for what we now call "content" doubles every
24 months.

Our society's incredible appetite for visual communications will this
year be satisfied by an ever-more eclectic mélange of traditional video
projects, art pieces, personal communications, digital signage and work
generated by the requirements of Homeland security.

Bandwidth (adhering to it's own Mooreish imperative) continues to
become cheaper and more plentiful, from home to office to coffee shop,
making it easier and more practical for people to use video as a
multipurpose medium of expression and influence. One small example: The
same people who today are snapping photos with their phonecams and
moments later posting them on their web sites will tomorrow be doing
the same thing with video clips.

And just think of the power inherent in the combination of available
bandwidth and IP addressable digital signs which can be instantly
changed to reflect a late breaking news story or a sale on bathroom
tissue in Aisle 7. I predict that we are entering a golden age for
design firms that can deliver compelling communications in small
formats, and indeed, new forms of expression will be found that
actually celebrate the constraints of non-traditional video venues.

As the cost of equipment drops, the barriers to entry in our industry
are being cast aside, and more people than ever before will become
producers and videographers and directors. This is a good thing.
Because although this means that there will be more and more really bad
video being created, there will also be a proportional increase in
projects that are creative and powerful and beautiful and meaningful.

John Rule
President
Rule Broadcast Systems

Time once again to peer into the crystal ball and to scrutinize tealeaves in search of what the New Year will bring. All the signs point to a good year ahead. I predict that 2004 will be the year AFTRA and SAG will finally merge into one strong Union - after only thirty years of trying. I also predict that 2004 will be the year we finally see the end of the long recession that began after the dot-com bubble burst in late 2000 and which has depressed our industry, both locally and nationally, for three long years. And with MYSTIC RIVER surely on its way to winning major awards, I predict that 2004 will be the year the Union talent pool in Boston finally gets the recognition it deserves. Thanks to Clint Eastwood for having the vision to cast thirty of our local AFTRA/SAG members in principal parts. That's a record for a major studio production on location in New England - a record as of 2003, that is. But records are meant to be broken, and 2004 looks like it just may be the year for breaking records!

Dona Sommers
Executive Director
AFTRA/SAG

My predictions for the industry:
1. Boston get's fully back on the Hollywood film map for it's great locations, talented actors, great crew, and congenial environment.
2. Mayor Menino and Mitt Romney approve a last minute budget item that diverts all state and city spending on the Democratic National Convention to the Massachusetts Film Office.
3. Oscar voters actually go see the movies they vote on rather than wait for the screener court battle to resolve itself.

Kevin Anderton
Midnight Chimes Productions

I'll admit it, my crystal ball is in the shop, and I spilled my tea thismorning and can't read the tea leaves spread across the kitchen counter, so these are guesses more than predictions.

The psuedo reality TV show craze will continue for at least another year,
distracting the country from the 2004 psuedo election campaign. And on that
note, ad revenues for all media across the board will go up significantly in '04, dropping off dramatically late in the 4th quarter.

The trendless trend will continue in Hollywood films - a few cartoons, a few
historical pieces, a few action films, a bit of sci fi, and the usual romances and comedies will round out the fare. Style will continue to trump substance (with a few exceptions) and special effects and star power will continue to trump story and character.

But there is hope. 2004 could well be a record year for indie film production. But the coming glut has a downside. Indie filmmakers will find it harder and harder to break through via the film festival route and harder and harder to ink any distribution deal at all, which means more and more films will be seen less and less.

However, web distribution based indie film companies like Boston's Mindscape
Pictures (www.mindscapepictures.com) will make inroads into the mainstream
consciousness and start to make waves. Small specialty film and video makers like New England Video Portraits (www.siteprod.com) are succeeding in web based distribution. Cooperative marketing ventures such as webrings, link exchanges and other web based marketing methods will make this a viable and attractive alternative to standard film distribution models. And the increase in availability of high speed internet access will open the doors to a whole new range of internet based micro distribution models.

Scott Anderson
Harvard Square Scriptwriters
Cambridge, Massachusetts

This coming year should be very promising. Because of the theatre's award as
"BEST of RI" (best change in a business in 2003), I am now getting calls to book corporate events, among other stage presentations. As you know the Smithsonian Masterpiece Jazz Ensemble performed at the theatre in October. This was a wonderful event! The Providence/Warwick Convention and Visitors' Bureau will also be helpful in directing people to the theatre in the future.

More new groups are discovering the marvelous acoustics of the Columbus
Theatre. I'm proud to have had such fine groups as the Community Musicworks
bringing the famous Borromeo String Quartet to the Columbus Theatre, and in March will bring the outstanding Turtle Island Quartet. The RI Civic Chorale also
performed for a fundraiser for AIDS in September. The Narragansett Bay Chorus with the Coastline Chorus sang last December and are scheduled to perform again soon.

During the past year, George Marshall has always been a great inspiration and
always ready to help. The RI International Film Festival will continue at the
Columbus Theatre in 2004, together with Picture Start, and the various film
festivals, such as Sue Ann Kroll's Human Rights Film Festival, the festival
brought in by Sara Archambault under the sponsorship of the RI Council for the
Humanities. The most difficult job is juggling the independent film bookings in
between the stage and festival bookings. Fortunately I have two screens to
work with. I'm looking forward to the New Year with more activity and the best of
the independent films available.

Jon Berberian
Columbus Theatre
Providence, Rhode Island

From the point of view of a non-profit fiscal sponsor whose filmmaker-members
and community outreach programs depend on grants and individual donations,
I'm viewing 2004 with cautious optimism. 2003 saw the shrinking of foundation
monies and assets of individual donors due to the downturn in the economy. This recent and, hopefully, short-lived trend has led to some innovative approaches, which offer hope for the future.

One such creative approach has been demonstrated by the LEF Foundation of New England. Since May, LEF Executive Director Lyda Kuth has been convening a series of meetings among six non-profits that support Boston area filmmakers and filmmaking -- BF/VF, Center for Independent Documentary, Central Productions, The Color of Film Collaborative, Filmmakers Collaborative, and WGBH local broadcasting -- to brainstorm creative to increase the production of independent film in Boston. Many new ideas and potential collaborations have emerged from these meetings, initiatives that may lead to greater support and improved channels of information for independent filmmakers.

The upcoming fifth anniversary of Filmmakers Open Studios (May 1-5, 2004)
will reflect some of these ideas and collaborations, especially around the issues
of new technologies and information about funding and distribution. Filmmakers Open Studios is itself collaborating with the Independent Film Festival of Boston, taking place the same weekend, with the hope that the two complementary events will create an irresistible and broadly appealing array of screenings, information, panels, and special events for the movie-making and movie-going public, making the first weekend in May the must-attend weekend for film & video enthusiasts in Boston.

These worthwhile collaborations on film/video events and production support
can only bode well for the industry. Such pooling of resources and ideas within
the filmmaking community may emerge as a model for collaboration, not only during economic downturns, but for the long term as well.

Bonnie Waltch
Executive Director
Filmmakers Collaborative, Waltham, Massachusetts

The past year was an incredible one for me. I launched two new paths in my already exciting and full life. First I bought a Harley Davidson 2003 Anniversary Edition Road King Classic. This is my first motorcycle and I am in the sport with both feet. I went to Daytona Bike Week (500,000 bikes), Laconia Bike Week (300,000 bikes), rode from Boston to Milwaukee for the 100th Anniversary of Harley in August (350,000 bikes), went to Daytona Biketoberfest (150,000) and in December rode with Steve Tyler of Aerosmith in the Ft. Lauderdale Toys for Tots Run with 30,000 other bikers.
My other new endeavor was to be in the movies. I had the good fortune to be cast as an extra in the blockbuster movie of 2003, Mystic River. I not only had great "face time " in the church scene, but they used the clip in the trailer on the promotional website. The biggest thrill was being on the set for 8 hours and watching Clint Eastwood in action as a director. He was awesome; deliberate, calm, collected and got great results from the cast and crew with not a whole lot of effort. I also did a few commercials as well as an MTV music video. All in all, a good year.
My prediction for the New Year is that MYSTIC RIVER will have a great showing at the Oscars. Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. Bet on it!

Richard DeAgazio
President
Boston Capital Services

In 2004, the tools for digital cinema will evolve. In post, we are already seeing more affordable solutions for uncompressed and HD editing as Final Cut Pro leads the way. For the digital filmmaker, tape is going to become less important next year as Direct to Edit technologies like the FireStore FS3 allow shooters to record directly to multiple hard drives and as companies like Panasonic experiment further with recording directly to compact flash memory cards.

28 DAYS LATER was shot entirely on digital video with the Canon XL1S.
Soderberg will legitimize the DVX100 in 2004 with his next digital feature. Walter Murchs' foray with Final Cut bears fruit with COLD MOUNTAIN "Cold and the films' Executive Producer, Sidney Pollack, a big Final Cut Pro fan, will edit his next feature, THE INTERPRETER with Final Cut. Hollywood will continue to experiment with digital and as such I predict in 2004 we will see several features, including at least one from within our own community, that will make breakthrough use of digital video and empower independent filmmaking to the next level.

There will be some significant news surrounding NAB next year that will deliver to those who understand the economics of shooting digital yet wish for more resolution in the image.

What does this mean for our community? It's going to be significantly easier for filmmakers to collaborate with others and tell the stories that mainstream media ignores. Artists, painters and musicians will team up with photographers and filmmakers to lend a much needed new voice to our culture.

In 2004, the Digital Video revolution will shed its' skin and give birth to the Digital Filmmaking revolution, fueling our passion for storytelling and for sharing the experience of cinema.

Daniel Berube
Founder Boston Final Cut Pro User Group
Producer/Editor noisybrain. Productions

I am very flattered that IMAGINE did a feature on me and that Carol has asked me my predictions for the industry in 2004. Honestly, I don't have a clue. Things may get very shaken up with the arrival of the first film as IPO. All I know for certain is that it is as difficult as ever to make your way in this business, but cream always floats to the top. So keep milking.

Daniel Scott Fine
Bagel Fish Productions
New Haven, Connecticut

"With the upturn in the economy and the revamping of film offices in several
New England states, 2004 will see an increased interest in film production and
promotion in the region. The resources are in place. New England is blessed
with exceptional talent. However, there needs to be leadership with vision to
not only attract production work, but to work as a collaborative sharing
potential leads with other states. The region is far too small to not be thinking
about the bigger picture which transcends the provincialism of the past. Without
a guiding vision, New England will continue to lose out to their comrades to
the north who can offer better production packages, tax breaks and financial
incentives.

Given the tight budgets and financial shortfalls the states are currently facing, it is critical that a new paradigm be developed that creates a New England Film Compact. States working together could jointly address the production incentives issue and find solutions. The Rhode Island tax incentive that was so lauded a few years ago turned out to be a paper tiger and has never been used. An analysis of its failure may illustrate what direction should be taken to lure in regional work.

Finally, this same model should be used in addressing the shortfall in financial underwriting of the film festivals which dot our landscape. There is plenty of room for each of these events to survive and fulfill their missions. But they need to start seeing each other sharing common interests instead of being competitors. From health care, worker's compensation, event and B&O insurance to joint promotions, the New England film festivals have a unique geographic link which is grossly overlooked. If a collaborative consciousness were developed, it could make the region a true, year-round film Mecca. And, instead of lip service, our local/regional filmmakers would actually enjoy a combined power promoting their work to larger audiences both nationally and internationally, which would by its very nature draw in more work for the region.

George T. Marshall
Executive Director,
Rhode Island International Film Festival